Fire Crux MageTier 1
at リージョナル In Hasuya
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -9.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.6 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |